000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 
13.1N 107.2W AT 0300 UTC SEP 6 MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 9 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 
112W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER 
STRENGTHENING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM 
INTENSITY BY SUN MORNING AND FURTHER INCREASE TO HURRICANE 
INTENSITY BY MON NIGHT. REFER TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 99W N OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 07N83W TO 08N87W TO 
11N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ARE NEAR 24N115W. THE 
REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AND THERE REMAINS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW HAVE FALLEN 
BELOW 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW 
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW 
WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS FALLING BELOW 8 FT.

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED 
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS... 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FOUND N OF 18N W OF 137W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 
FT WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BY 
MON EVENING SEAS OVER THIS AREA WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED NNW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N143W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 27N120W. FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED WHERE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. 
OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREAS...WINDS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE 
RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SW CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...IS 
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THIS WILL BRING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP 
CURRENTS.

$$
AL