000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052107
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 12N107W IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE. 
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE 
SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. 
THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 98W N OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W 
AND 100W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 07N83W TO 11N93W TO 
11N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 
05N E OF 82W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WERE NEAR 24N114.5W. THE 
REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN AND THERE REMAINS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS EXPECTED 
TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW.

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED 
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS... 
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT FOUND W OF N OF 15N W OF 137W. SEAS GREATER 
THAN 8 FT WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AND BY MON AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO N OF 26N W OF 139W. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NNW OF THE AREA NEAR 41N141W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 27N120W. FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED WHERE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. 
OUTSIDE OF THESE TWO AREA...WINDS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE 
RANGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF SW CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...IS 
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE 
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. THIS SWELL WILL BRING 
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.

$$
AL