000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012126
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 
HURRICANE JIMENA HAS SHIFTED W OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 140.8W AT 2100 UTC SEP 01. 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL AFFECTING A SMALL PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 50 NM NE QUADRANT OF JIMENA WITH TROPICAL 
STORM FORCE WINDS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 140 
NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND OVER 
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 260 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO JIMENA WAS NOTED OVER 
THE FORECAST AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. JIMENA 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED 
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W WITH THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE CONDITIONS 
WILL LIKELY SHIFT W OF 140W THIS EVENING WHILE TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W BY WED. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPCP4/WTPA34 KNHC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 114.2W AT 
2100 UTC...MOVING NW 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND INTENSIFY 
FURTHER TO 40 KT WED. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS WHILE 
MOVING FURTHER NORTH. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N84W TO 11N93W TO 
09N100W TO 11N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 
102W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N155W 
EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE 
FOUND OVER THE AREA OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF JIMENA AND TD 
FOURTEEN-E. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS CURRENTLY FOUND S OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 
BY THU SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF 04N BETWEEN 
100W AND 132W.

$$
AL