000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270316 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 137.5W AT 27/0300 UTC MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IGNACIO IS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING AS NOTED IN ITS MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...AND IN THE VERY STRONG AND LARGE DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT 150 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N138W TO 15N138W TO 16N137W. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THU NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 114.8W OR ABOUT 730 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 27/0300 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN DEFINITION JUST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N116W TO 14N114W TO 13N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 111W-118W...AND IN AN OUTER BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 11N110W FROM 08N110W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU MORNING NEAR 12N117W...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS NEAR 13N124W PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N85W TO 08N94W TO 08N102W TO 10N109W TO 11N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W- 110W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N129W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A WEAK COLD JUST NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI WHILE DISSIPATING. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 SECOND RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL WATERS...AND TOWARDS THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS THROUGH THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS RESULTING ALONG THESE COASTS. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT S OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N134W IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 130W- 134W...AND ALSO FROM 03N-06N W OF 135W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THU AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL AGAIN FUNNEL ACROSS THE GULF LATE THU NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRI AFTERNOON. RESULTING SEAS WILL START AT 8 FT...AND BUILD TO 8-10 FT LATE THU NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT FRI. $$ AGUIRRE