000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260300 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...FORMERLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 133.4W AT 26/0300 UTC IS MOVING W OR 260 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON...IGNACIO WAS BEING HAMPERED BY ESE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE CENTER BRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION CONSISTS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE AREA AS IT CONTINUES IN A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MORE IN A W-NW MOTION AFTERWARDS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LOW PRES SYSTEM...RECENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE... IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N107W WITH PRES OF 1008 MB MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 1010 KT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED SYMMETRY AND IS BROAD IN NATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY CONVECTION IN BROKEN BANDS IS WITHIN 60 NM SW AND 120 NM QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 105W-107W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 10N92W TO 11N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N107W AND TO 10N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-90W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N125W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY S OF ABOUT 17N. THIS FLOW IS INDUCING SHEAR OVER IGNACIO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION...A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N100W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO NEAR 110W. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 19N110W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A DISSIPATING 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N139W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS...REACHING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START UP AGAIN ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ...AND ACROSS THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT AND REACH TO 30 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WED BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING WED AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 9-10 FT RANGE EACH MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE