000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. AT 25/0900 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 131.7W MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRES IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT G TO 40 KT. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 131W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N104W TO 10N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N93W TO 10N100W TO 07N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 118W FROM 10N TO 21N ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN. A SURFACE LOW ALSO REMAINS JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N138W WITH WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TO 28N137W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 112W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N AND W OF 115W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A STRONGER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A 1024 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 40N135W MOVES SE TO A POSITION NEAR 35N129W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS REACHING THE EQUATOR... AND WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR W OF 110W TONIGHT AND REACH AS FAR N AS 07N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W BY LATE TUE NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH THIS NOCTURNAL PULSE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY TUE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD THROUGH THE FAR EPAC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AND TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING 9 TO 10 FT EACH EARLY MORNING. $$ FORMOSA