000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242126 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 13N130.5W AT 1800 UTC MOVING SLOWLY W AT 2 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED W OF THE LOW CENTER AND MAINLY FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 131W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS VERY WELL THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN AROUND 150 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE W AT 5 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W FROM 09N TO 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 106W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 118W FROM 10N TO 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 116W AND 119W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWARD BULGE OF MOISTURE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 10N99W TO 07N109W...WHERE IT BREAKS...THEN RESUMES FROM NEAR14N120W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N130.5W TO BEYOND 11N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION S OF TROUGH AXIS TO 03N AND E OF 87W...AND WITHIN 90-100 NM S TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS TROUGH...FROM N MEXICO WESTWARD...AND FROM THE TROPICAL S PACIFIC EASTWARD. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND IS PRESENTLY PRODUCING VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC S OF 15N. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN. A SURFACE LOW ALSO REMAINS JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N136.5W WITH WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TO 28N137W. THE LOW AND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 110W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 20N AND W OF 115W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A STRONGER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA MOVES EASTWARD. A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS REACHING THE EQUATOR... AND WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE REACHING THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT ALONG THE EQUATOR W OF 110W TONIGHT AND REACH AS FAR N AS 07N AND W OF 106W BY LATE TUE NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT WITH THIS NOCTURNAL PULSE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD THROUGH THE FAR EPAC WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS BUILDING 9 TO 10 FT EACH EARLY MORNING. $$ GR