000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240915 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 13N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE W AT 5 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W FROM 10N TO 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N114W TO 10N116W. CURRENTLY... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWARD BULGE OF MOISTURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OR MERGE WITH THE DISTURBANCE NEAR 13N130W MENTIONED IN SPECIAL FEATURE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 07N107W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 100W...FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 112W...AND FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N135W TO 25N139W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 112W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 13N130W. A STRONGER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA MOVES EASTWARD. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF A LINE FROM 00N107W TO 03.4S100W BY TUE AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HELP FOR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO 20- 25 KT TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND TO 25-30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ FORMOSA