000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240228 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES AREA ARE NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN AROUND 120 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE W-NW AT 5-10 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANGE THROUGH 5 DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 11N91W AND NEAR 11N97W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N114W TO 10N115W. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 121W. THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHWARD BULGE OF MOISTURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OR MERGE WITH THE DISTURBANCE NEAR 12N129W MENTIONED IN SPECIAL FEATURE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 08N107W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 26N140W. THIS TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 30N135W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 112W. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. A STRONGER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA MOVES EASTWARD. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR TONIGHT AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF A LINE FROM 00N107W TO 03.4S100W BY TUE AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW ACROSS THIS GULF TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 7-8 FT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HELP FOR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO 20- 25 KT TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND TO 25-30 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. $$ GR