000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231503
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 9N102W TO 15N104W  MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 11N115W TO 17N114W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 111W 
AND 116W.

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 11N-18N ALONG 120W MOVING W AT 10 -15 KT. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W TO 10N95W TO 9N100W TO 11N107W.   
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 78W-84W AND WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 90W-95W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N130W. THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. 
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 
NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 48 HOURS. 

A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 10N139W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. 
 
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON 
AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND 
TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 105W BY TUE. 
 
ELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO MON. THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS TUE.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-30 ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP 
TO 10 FT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. 

$$
DGS