000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 06N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 10N114W TO 18N111W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS  DEPICTED IN THE TPW PRODUCT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE 
BULGE  OF MOISTURE. THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 MB 
VORTICITY ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W FROM 08N TO 18N MOVING W AT 10 -15 
KT. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS REFLECTED ON 
THE TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 
15N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N90W TO 08N100W TO 
10N105W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N129W. THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. 
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 133W. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES 
THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 48 HOURS. 

A 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 10N139W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM W OF CENTER.  

A 1014 MB LOW IS JUST N OF THE NW CORNER NEAR 31.5N133W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N139W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRES 
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY N 
OF 27N.

LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WILL REACH THE EQUATOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON 
AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS MON AND 
TUE BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 105W BY TUE. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAINLY FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUN 
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW 
GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE FAR EASTERN 
PACIFIC WILL HELP FOR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND TO 25-30 
KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 
9 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT BY EARLY TUE MORNING. 

$$ 
FORMOSA