000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W FROM 07N TO 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 
95W AND 101W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL AS A SURGE OF 
MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 111W FROM 09N TO 16N. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W 
AND 114W. THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE 
TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB 
STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 09N TO 14N WITH A 1010 MB LOW 
PRES ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO  
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W AND 
121W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW PRODUCT. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE 
HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W. NO ITCZ IS 
PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVES...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N128W. THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. 
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 121W AND 
127W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING 
MONITORED AND THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW 
A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 48 HOURS. 

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES...WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1011MB IS 
ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 11N137W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 09N TO 
11N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 135W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST WEST OF AREA IN 
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN PERSISTS NEAR 31N133W WITH A 
CENTRAL PRES OF 1014 MB. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO NEAR 27N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR WINDS ARE 
NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL OBSERVED 
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW 
PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY SUN 
THEN FINALLY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT 
WESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE N WATERS BEGINNING SUN 
NIGHT. 

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W WITH A 
WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N127W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRES OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY N OF 27N. LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE N WATERS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS 
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 
COUPLE OF LOW PRES MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS THE TROPICS. THE HIGH 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR 30N128W IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS.  
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAINLY FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUN 
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH SEAS NEAR TO 7-8 FT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE COMBINATION OF A TROUGH OVER THE SW 
GULF AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE FAR EASTERN 
PACIFIC WILL HELP FOR WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. 

$$ 
GR