000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220902
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W FROM 06N TO 14N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
THE WAVE SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
09N BETWEEN 90W AND 98W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 07N TO 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB 
STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 
112W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W FROM 07N TO 16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 09N88W TO 07N94W TO 
10N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
13N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 12N126W. THE 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. 
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 125W AND 120W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE 
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THE 
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W WITH A 
WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING MAINLY NW MODERATE BREEZE OFF THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
GAP WINDS...                                                   \ 
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG BREEZE GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 6-7 FEET. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 12 HOURS. 

$$ 
FORMOSA