000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W FROM 06N TO 15N. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 06N TO 16N. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW PRODUCT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 07N93W TO 08N101W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 86W AND 94W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS N OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N83W AND IS ALSO AFFECTING WESTERN PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AND NOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N125W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW REMAINS LIMITED. CURRENTLY...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN AROUND 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED AND THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 48 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN PERSISTS NEAR 31N133W WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1014 MB. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR WINDS ARE NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS NOTED FARTHER SW NEAR 29N137W. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON SAT AND FINALLY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH ON SUN. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE N WATERS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W WITH A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N130W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS... AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BUILDING SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THEN...EXPECT MAINLY FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING NEAR OR BELOW 8 FT. $$ GR