000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202119
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU AUG 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 06N TO 13N. THERE IS NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THIS WAVE IS SITUATED NOT 
FAR FROM ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ALONG 
ALONG 107W...AND THEY COULD MERGE AT SOME POINT. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 05N TO 12N. CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 
09N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 110W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 122W FROM 10N TO 16N MOVING W AT 
15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS BROADLY APPARENT ON THE LATEST GFS 700 
MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS. THE TPW IMAGERY 
SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ. 
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL 
WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATE 
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...BETWEEN 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N127W AND 
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE 
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 4 FT. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE 
DISSIPATED.  NO CHANGES EXPECTED OTHERWISE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN PERSISTS NEAR 30N133W WITH A 
CENTRAL PRES OF 1013 MB. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OR WINDS ARE 
NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW 8 FT. THE 
LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE 
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. FARTHER SOUTH...DEVELOPING LOW PRES W OF 
140W...NOW T.D. THREE-C...WAS GENERATING SW SWELL TO 9 FT TO THE 
EAST OF 140W. THESE SEAS ARE ALREADY SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO 
FRI MORNING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-
7 FT DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF TO NEAR 90W.   
 
$$ 
GR