000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190837
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED AUG 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N91W TO 12N95W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP 
TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. ALSO...THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST 700 MB 
STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 116W FROM 09N TO 15N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W 
AND 119W. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY...AND IS BROADLY APPARENT ON THE 
LATEST 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N90W. NO ITCZ 
AXIS IS PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 83W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 12N W 
OF 125W.

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...1015 MB IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE 
WATERS AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE A TROUGH 
EXTENDING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY REMAINS STATIONARY. 
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N 
ARE LIKELY 15 TO 20 KT. A RECENT ALTIMETER INDICATED SEAS THERE 
ARE NEAR 4 FT. DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO IS 
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY 
TO 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND THE TROUGH 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 6 FT 
IN OFFSHORE AREAS AND OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA...SUPPORTING SEAS TO 6 FT DOWNSTREAM 
TO 90W. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W...AT THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 
ROUGHLY 08N85W. SEAS REMAIN 3 TO 5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO REGION WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.
9
ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. ELEVEN-E HAVE OPENED INTO A 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N131W TO 29N138W. THIS IS COMING INTO 
PHASE WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THESE FEATURES. SEVERAL ALTIMETER 
PASSES CONFIRM SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N 
W OF 128W. THIS IS LIKELY IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NE SWELL AND 
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL LINGERING FROM THE REMNANTS OF T.D. ELEVEN-
E. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH LATE 
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS AND SEAS FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 135W 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES W OF THE AREA HAVE 
DIMINISHED AS THE LOW PRES HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST. ELSEWHERE 
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.
 
$$ 
CHRISTENSEN