000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190244
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED AUG 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W FROM 03N TO 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 89W  
AND 92W. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
ALSO...THE WAVE IS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 
850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 08N TO 16N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 117W. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY...AND IS BROADLY APPARENT ON THE 
LATEST 700 MB STREAMLINE AND 850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N122W TO 13N132W TO 
10N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 420 NM SE OF THE AXIS W OF 129W.

ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF A 
LINE FROM 14N96W TO 05N93W. THIS CONVECTION MAYBE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA IS ALSO UNDER 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...DISCUSSION... 

A TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...ARE 
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 29N127W TO 
24N130W. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER AN AREA OF 
RESIDUAL 8-9 FT SWELL COVERS THE WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 131W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NW AROUND 
20 KT WHILE WEAKENING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY 36-48 HOURS 
WHEN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT.

AN AREA OF MIXED NE AND SE SWELL REMAINS ACROSS THE NW CORNER  
OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 
131W AND 134W. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED 
AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED JUST TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS WHICH HAS A MEDIUM POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. 
PLENTIFUL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW W OF 140W WHILE 
AN AREA OF ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ACROSS OUR FORECAST 
WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N W OF 138W. THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY 
FROM 140W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU EVENING.

$$ 
LEWITSKY