000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181604 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE AUG 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W FROM 03N TO 10N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-08N. SIMILAR CONVECTION JUST W OF THE WAVE IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS NOTED BELOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 07N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W...AND CONTINUES TO 07N99W AND NW TO 10N108W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N112W NW TO 15N120W AND TO 11N130W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 132W-137W...AND FROM 08N- 11N W OF 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 127W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 114W-119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W- 96W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 22N132W WITH ITS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 120W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED AROUND THE LOW FROM 17N-29N BETWEEN 120W-128W...ALSO FROM 14N- 17N BETWEEN 128W-132W AND N OF 15N W OF 135W. THIS IS INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST N OF THE LOW BETWEEN 120W-136W. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WNW TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY THU WED AS THE REMNANT LOW OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E LOCATED NEAR 25N126W 1005 MB TRACKS TOWARDS NW AT 15 KT TOWARDS THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 180 OF THE LOW IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE E QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT NEARS 29N132W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 6-7 FT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N95W IN 24 HOURS...AND WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO NEAR 10N103W IN 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS. OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION...A BROAD TROUGH THAT EXTENDS PARTIALLY INTO THE AREA WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 10N/11N W OF 130W HAS FRESH SW FLOW TO ITS S...AND EXTENDS EASTWARD TO NEAR 135W. SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT ARE WITHIN THIS AREA OF FRESH SW FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH. $$ AGUIRRE