000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180939 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANT LOW OF THE RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 24.9N 124.5W AT 18/0900 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 870 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT REACHED AS FAR AS 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM IN THE E QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N TO 10N ALONG 84W/85W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 108W/109W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 06N95W TO 09N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N111W TO 14N120W TO 11N130W. A TROUGH REACHES FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N W OF 120W...THE WIND PATTERN DISPLAYED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05 UTC INDICATED A HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 20N110W...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES IN THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THIS IS THE RESULT OF SW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELEVEN-E TO THE WEST. THE 05 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED FRESH SW FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. DRY AND SUBSIDENT NE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPRESSING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF MAZATLAN. THE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD AS IT SHIFTS NW IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING T.D. ELEVEN-E. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH NW TO N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED WED AND THU WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OTHERWISE. S OF 15N W OF 110W...DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM JAMAICA TO PANAMA IS ENHANCING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N W OF 95W WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OFF EL SALVADOR. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART N OF 02N ALTHOUGH PULSES OF FRESH TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...INCREASING SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED NEAR 20N130W...BRINGING A BROAD SWATH OF DRY AIR TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE ATMOSPHERE N OF 12N W OF 120W. AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 132W AND 137W RELATED TO KELVIN WAVE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND FOSTERING A EAST TO WEST ORIENTED TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 10N. LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THIS TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF FRESH SW FLOW AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 138W IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. $$ CHRISTENSEN