000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON AUG 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 120.0W AT 
17/0900 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 580 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. SEAS TO 12 FT ARE WITHIN 240 NM NE 
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT...DUE IN PART TO SE 
SWELL. THE CYCLONE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THUS SEAS 
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 FEET THROUGH TODAY. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR 19N131W 
PRODUCING STRONG SW SHEAR WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. PLEASE SEE THE 
LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 101W/102W N OF 10N. THE WAVE IS AT 
THE BASE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHING FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO 
11N102W WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N95W TO 10.5N100W TO 
13N110W...THEN RESUMES FROM 12N119W TO 09N133W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS W 
OF 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...A 0530 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE 
AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 420 NM ON THE EAST SIDE OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS 
INDICATED SEAS TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...LIKELY INCLUDING 
A COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL IN ADDITION SEAS GENERATED BY 
THE STRONG WINDS AROUND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THESE SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY TO BELOW 12 FT OVERALL AS 
THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W OF 120W. MEANWHILE STRONG 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 27N TO 30N...AND OFF CABO CORRIENTES. THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN BOTH AREAS THROUGH LATE 
MORNING...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM CABO 
CORRIENTES TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 101W/102W WILL SHIFT WEST REACHING 106W/107W 
THROUGH 48 HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS OR SEAS.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...A 0340 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH GAP 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE 
MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL FRESH GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE 
TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LOW PRES CENTER FORMING 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH LIKELY RELATED TO THE GAP WINDS 
PULSES...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING WINDS OR SEAS AS IT 
DRIFTS WEST ALONG 08N TO 10N AND WEAKENS. 

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N131W IS 
DELIVERING DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION N OF MONSOON TROUGH 
AND INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER SOUTH...FRESH 
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W 
OF 135W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6 FT IN A MIX OF SE AND NE SWELL. 
SOME WAVE MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASED NE SWELL MOVING SOUTH 
OF 30N IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALLOWING SEAS TO 8 FT N OF 28N 
W OF 130W.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN