000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON AUG 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 119.1W AT 
17/0300 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 535 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO 21N 
BETWEEN 118W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO IN 
A BAND E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N118W 
17N114W. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT AND 
WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT. MAX SEAS ARE 13 FT. SOME OF THESE 
SEAS ARE DUE TO SE SWELL. THE CYCLONE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY THUS SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 FEET 
MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR 
19N128W PRODUCING STRONG SW SHEAR WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 99/100W N OF 11N. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 10N104W. MONSOON TROF 
RESUMES FROM 11N124W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF 4N E OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W...AND FROM 07N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A 1039 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AT 
45N147W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS WEAK ENOUGH 
THAT THE TRADEWINDS ARE ONLY FRESH BREEZE OR LIGHTER. A SMALL 
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS WEST OF 134W FROM 13N TO 19N WITH NE AND SE 
SWELL WILL DIMINISH BY TONIGHT.  

A WEAK PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT IS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF 
NICARAGUA. WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS 
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 7 FEET MON AND TUE 
MORNINGS.

$$ 
FORMOSA