000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 114.6W AT 
15/0900 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 413 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 108W-113W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N113W 
TO 20N119W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 95W N OF 11N TO INLAND OVER S 
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
11N-14N BETWEEN 93W-97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 10N92W 8N99W TO 12N105W 
THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N117W ALONG 8N124W TO 8N130W WHERE THE ITCZ 
AXIS BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 100W-103W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 110W-114W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 
NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-93W...AND WITHIN 215 NM S OF 
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-140W.   

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AND W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
44N146W THROUGH 32N134W TO 26N125W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ IS GENERATING FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT 
FROM 12N-20N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 
FT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO NEAR 32N113W THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 27N112W 23N107W TO 19N104W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-24N E OF 
108W TO COAST OF MEXICO AND IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 26N-
30N.

$$
PAW