000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI AUG 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
 
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ACTIVE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED EARLIER ALONG 107W. THE LOW WAS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N107W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 1007 
MB. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOOSELY 
ORGANIZED IN BANDS WAS NOTED WITHIN 270 NM IN THE N AND 300 NM 
IN THE S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 
105W AND 113W. 

THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NW. BASED ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY 
OF GENESIS....A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH SEAS   
BEGINNING SAT EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUM. THE GALE WARNINGS 
MAY BE TRANSITIONED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. PLEASE REFER 
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 09N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO COSTA RICA IS 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE E PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125/126W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 138W FROM 07N-16N MOVING W 10 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 130W TO 137W AND
ACCOMPANIED THE WAVE AS WELL. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N90W TO 10N100W THEN 
RESUMES NEAR 11N111W TO 07N125W TO 08N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE  
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W 
AND 128W...WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 
137W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 90W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W 
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N149W WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N130W TO 22N115W. THE LOW 
PREVIOUSLY NEAR 20N140W HAS NOW WEAKENED TO A SURFACE TROUGH  W 
OF THE AREA. THIS LOW IS STILL ALLOWING FOR E TO SE WINDS OF 20 
KT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OVER THE AREA FROM 21N-25N W OF 138W. THE 
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SE SWELL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS 
TO 8 FT CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA S OF LINE FROM 
09N105W TO 07N115W TO 00N130W. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED N WINDS TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. FRESH N-NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  

$$ 
COBB