000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI AUG 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
 
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 10N-17N. AN 
ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRES IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 12N107W. 
THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS REMOVED TO THE N OF THE 
ELONGATED LOWER PRES AND REMAINS DISORGANIZED. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF 
LINE FROM 14N99W TO 18N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 104W-111W. FRESH TO 
STRONG E-SE WINDS TRAIL THE WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. 
THE WAVE LIES BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS 
ENHANCING THE ABOVE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER 
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS 
SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT 
MOVES W-NW NEAR 10-13 KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO COSTA RICA IS MOVING W 
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
E PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123/124W FROM 9N-17N MOVING W NEAR 
10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 137W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W 5-10 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N77W ALONG 6N82W 7N89W 7N95W TO 
10N100W THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N110W ALONG 7N123W TO 8N133W. ITCZ 
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 8N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE N OF 3N E OF 80W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 80W-89W...N OF 3N TO MONSOON 
TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-120W...AND FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 103W-137W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W 
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH N-NW OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N140W TO 22N120W. THE LOW PREVIOUSLY NEAR 
20N140W IS NOW WEST OF THE AREA. THIS IS STILL GIVING THE AREA 
FROM 21N-25N W OF 137W FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND THE SEAS SUBSIDE FRI 
AFTERNOON. 

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SE SWELL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. SEAS 
TO 8 FT CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA S OF LINE FROM 
8N102W ALONG 10N111W TO 00N132W. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROPICAL WAVE IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES HAS ALLOWED N WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL DIMINISHED BELOW 
20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING FRI EVENING. 

$$ 
PAW