000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140231 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI AUG 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 106W N OF 10N. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OF 1007 MB IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N106W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE SINCE YESTERDAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS FOLLOW THE WAVE WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE WAVE LIES UNDER A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD ASSIST THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES W-NW AROUND 10 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN PANAMA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WHILE SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER WESTERN PANAMA AND SE COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE REGIONAL WATERS N OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123/124W FROM 08N-16N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 135W FROM 08N-16N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO 08N121W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N125W TO 08N137W. CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 07N E OF 80W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR 20N140W. A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOUR OR SO AS IT MOVES W OF AREA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A BROAD CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT LIKELY DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N. THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS AND STRETCHES FROM 32N132W TO 22N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A GENTLE BREEZE DURING THE DAYS AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SE SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT RANGE CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA S OF 06N BETWEEN 102W AND 124W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ALLOWED N WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. FRESH N-NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND DISSIPATE JUST AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHERLY SWELL COUPLED WITH THE GAP WIND GENERATED SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO 8-9 FT. $$ GR