000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE AUG 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 05N IS MOVING W AROUND 5 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE N OF 11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N IS MOVING W AROUND 15 
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 128W FROM 04N-12N IS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N 
BETWEEN 125W-131W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO 08N121W. ITCZ 
AXIS IS FROM 06N131W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 75W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND 
123W.

...DISCUSSION... 

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES ANALYZED NEAR 17N130W. A WELL-
DEFINED EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. AN ASCAT-B PASS FROM 1842 UTC SHOWED 
WINDS TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10 KT AND IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE RIDGE FROM A 1018 MN HIGH AT 28N132W TO 21N116W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO 
FRESH BREEZE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE GENTLE 
TO MODERATE BREEZE DURING THE DAY.

15-17 SECOND PERIODS CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS REACHED THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. COMBINED SEAS IN 
THE 8-11 FT RANGE PRIMARILY IN S SWELL CAN BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE AREA S OF 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 106W AND S OF 03N W OF 
106W. SEAS IN THIS RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N OVER EASTERN 
WATERS TO 09N BY EARLY WED BEFORE SUBSIDING...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT 
CONFINED PRIMARILY W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING THE TROUGHING THERE. THIS WILL INCREASE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ALLOW N WINDS 
TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEGINNING EARLY WED. WINDS WILL 
REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS. SOUTHERLY SWELL COUPLED 
WITH THE GAP WIND GENERATED SWELL WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO 9 
FT WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WED. THESE WINDS WILL 
PULSE...BECOMING STRONGEST IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE BENEFIT 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BOTH WED AND THU MORNINGS. SEAS WILL 
ALSO BUILD TO 9 FT COMBINED WITH S SWELL...AND REMAIN IN THE 7-9 
FT RANGE DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

$$
FORMOSA