000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE AUG 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 05N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE AXIS S OF 08N.

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W-109W MOVING W 15 KT. NO CONVECTION. 

.TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 124W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-09N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FROM 09N90W TO 10N101W TO 09N107W. 
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N108W TO 08N118W TO 11N124W TO 07N133W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W-118W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

.A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N127W TO 18N129W. VISUAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
NEAR 16N128.5W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A SMALL AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE CONVECTION. THIS DISTURBANCE 
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N131W TO 17N105W. A COLD FRONT N 
OF THE AREA FROM 35N130W TO 30N140W WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN 
FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE WED.
 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY 
W OF 105W. S TO SE MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS TO 10-11 FT 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT SWELL 
WILL PUSH N-NE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO REACH CENTRAL AMERICA. 
COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT S OF 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 105W 
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TUE NIGHT AND 
WED IN SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL ALLOW N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS TO REACH 25 KT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO 8 
FT WED MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL