000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101520 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON AUG 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W FROM 04N TO 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. .TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 04N TO 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. .TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 121W FROM 04N TO 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS FROM 07N90W TO 07N103W. ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 07N107W TO 07N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... .A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N127W TO 12N128W MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N129W TO 19N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DURING THE DAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS TO 9 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 15-17 SECOND PERIODS THIS EVENING. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN MIXED SE AND S SWELL BY WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BEGINNING TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME... TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ALLOW N WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED. $$ FORMOSA