000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 103W FROM 06N-14N. THIS WAVE 
IS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 
05N-08N BETWEEN 98W-109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 10N89W TO 
08N101W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N105W TO 07N120W TO 
06N125W TO 09N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-89W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W-129W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN 
THE MID-LEVELS NEAR 16N125W...BUT THE 0516 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 
AN OPEN TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED 
FROM 18N125W TO 10N129W. DEEP CONVECTION HAS MARKEDLY DIMINISHED 
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ONLY FOUND WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 13N-16N. AN UPPER LOW LIES TO THE NE OF THIS SYSTEM 
NEAR 22N116W AND IS PROPELLING DRIER AIR IN THE MID- AND UPPER-
LEVELS TOWARD THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND 
EXPERIENCE INCREASED NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WILL FURTHER INHIBIT 
DEVELOPMENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 32N131W 
TO 15N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND 
TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A 
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DURING THE DAYS AND INCREASE AGAIN IN 
THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING A STRONG BREEZE...FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY 
UNCHANGED.
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS INCREASED SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS S 
CENTRAL WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD 
INTO THE AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 15-17 SECOND PERIODS 
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY 
ACROSS THE AREA S OF 09N OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS BY 
EARLY WED MORNING. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BEGINNING TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO 
THE U.S. NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME 
TIME...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH S 
OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND ALLOW N WINDS TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD EARLY WED MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER