000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100229
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON AUG 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 06N-13N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 08N101W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N104W TO 09N115W TO 08N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TURNING ASSOCIATED 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 16N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 123W-126W. THIS DISTURBANCE IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 16N W 
OF 115W. MODERATE S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S 
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BENIGN WIND 
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW WINDS 
REMAINING BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
MON NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE 
BAJA PENINSULA. GAP WINDS MAY BEGIN TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT EARLY 
TUE IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO.
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS OVER 
S CENTRAL WATERS. S SWELL WILL PUSH NE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE 
LEADING EDGE REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH 15-17 SEC PERIODS BY LATE MON. COMBINED SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN S-SE SWELL ACROSS THE 
AREA W OF 80W AND S OF 05N BY EARLY TUE MORNING. 

$$
MUNDELL