000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN AUG 9 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 06N-14N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N 
BETWEEN 123W-125W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N101W TO 07N108W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N108W TO 08N118W TO 06N124W TO 07N135W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 79W-
86W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

ANIMATED VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR 16N124W. SURFACE 
PRESSURE FOR THE LOW IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 123W-125W. 
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE 
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE DRIER AIR AND INCREASED NORTHERLY 
SHEAR INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 16N W 
OF 115W. MODERATE S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S 
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A BENIGN WIND 
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS SHOW WINDS 
REMAINING BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
MON NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE 
BAJA PENINSULA. GAP WINDS MAY BEGIN TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT EARLY 
TUE IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO.
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS OVER 
S CENTRAL WATERS. S SWELL WILL PUSH NE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE 
LEADING EDGE REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH 15-17 SEC PERIODS BY LATE MON. COMBINED SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN S-SE SWELL ACROSS THE 
AREA W OF 80W AND S OF 05N BY EARLY TUE MORNING. 

$$
MUNDELL