000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 03N-11N MOVING W AT 
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS E OF THE WAVE TO 90W 
FROM 06N-09N AND W OF THE WAVE TO 100W FROM 05N-09N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08.5N78W TO 09N83W TO 
09N90W TO 07N97W TO 07N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
07N110W TO 07N116W TO 05N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 
60 NM S AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE W AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST 
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH HILDA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THE 
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WHILE SEAS REMAIN 7-9 FT FROM 14N-
20N W OF 137. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT HERE BY 
SUN EVENING. REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY 
WFO HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOHSFNP AND FZPN40 FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AS 
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 16N122W SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM 
CURRENTLY LIES UNDER A COL AREA ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONES CENTERED NEAR 17N137W AND 11N112W. IN ADDITION...AN 
UPPER LOW NEAR 22N115W IS PROPELLING DRIER AIR IN THE MID- AND 
UPPER-LEVELS TOWARD THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
W WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE 
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED NORTHERLY SHEAR INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE AREA FROM 32N134W TO THE 
ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE 
AND TROUGHING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A 
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DURING THE DAYS AND INCREASE AGAIN IN 
THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. 
 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS S 
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 15-17 SECOND 
PERIODS MON AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING. COMBINED SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL 
ACROSS THE AREA W OF 80W S OF A LINE FROM 06N80W TO 06N110W TO 
00N140W BY EARLY TUE MORNING. 

$$
SCHAUER