000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071509
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 136.7W AT 1500 UTC. 
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS WERE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND 
HILDA IS STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 
ABOUT 30 HOURS AS IT TRAVELS W INTO A REGION WITH LESS VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. REFER TO LATEST FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 9N-16N WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 
KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAS ALONG 124W FROM 1008 MB LOW AT 12N124W TO 18N 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND 
128W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 10N95W TO 09N105W TO 12N121W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 220 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 78W TO 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 S OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 100W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
112W TO 121W 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 21N134W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO 25N122W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 
19N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 21N115W. DIFFLUENCE IS S OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 
112W-121W.
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 19N115W. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL 
SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15 KT WINDS NW OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM 
OF BAJA COAST. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND 
AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WIND 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 7-8 FT SEAS MIXING WITH THE 
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 
LESS THEN 20 KT BY THIS EVENING.

$$
DGS