000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0745 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 135.6W AT 0900 UTC. 
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS WERE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90 NM AND 
210 NM N QUADRANT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILDA HAS NOT 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...BUT HILDA IS 
STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS AS IT TRAVELS W INTO A REGION WITH LESS VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. REFER TO LATEST FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W FROM 07N-14N WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN THE AREA BOUND BY A 
LINE FROM 10N99W TO 03N99W TO 10N109W TO TO 10N99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-
14N. 

A TROPICAL WAS ALONG 123W FROM 10N-19N WAS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 540 NM E OF THE WAVE 
FROM 10N-18N AND WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 07N95W TO 
08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W 1007 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 03N E OF 
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH N OF 
THE AREA THROUGH 27N131W TO 14N104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF 
T.S. HILDA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-NE TRADE 
WINDS AS FAR AS 330 NM N QUADRANT OF CENTER OF HILDA. A 
ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0540 UTC SHOWED SEAS TO 8 FT EXTEND N OF 
HILDA TO 21N. THIS AREA OF TRADES AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING W WITH HILDA. AFTER HILDA MOVES E 
OF THE AREA SAT MORNING...LOOK FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH 
OVER WESTERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN WHEN ONLY SEAS TO 9 FT 
SHOULD LINGER W OF 137W. 
 
MIXED SE AND SW CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL...WITH 8 FT SEAS...WAS 
BELIEVED TO LIE OVER THE FORECAST AREA S OF 02S W OF 105W THIS 
MORNING. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEARLY THE 
SAME AREA THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD 
OVER THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN AREA OF FRESH-STRONG NE WINDS WAS E OF 
89W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AS SEEN IN THE 0348 UTC 
ASCAT-B PASS. E-NE WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS 
MORNING IN PAPAGAYO...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FOUND WITHIN THE AREA 
OF STRONGEST WINDS AND COINCIDING S-SW SWELL. 

$$
SCHAUER