000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060946 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E IS LOCATED NEAR LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 130.8W OR ABOUT 1550 MILES WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 0900 UTC. THE ESTIMATED CENTER PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. TD 10-E IS MOVING W...OR 270 DEG...AT 10 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE...WITH TURN TO THE NW POSSIBLE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE PASSES W OF THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG RECENTLY FLARED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ELSEWHERE IN INTERMITTENT BANDS WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER. ALTHOUGH DRY UPPER AIR MAY INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WARM OCEAN WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY... THEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. REFER TO LATEST FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5 AND WTPZ35 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 07N ALONG 95W BUT CURRENTLY LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE HANGS ONTO THIS WAVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT ITS N AMPLITUDE WILL DECREASE AS IT MOVES INTO A LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL PORTION OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09-17N ALONG 117.5W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 240 NM WITHIN 240 NM OF 11N114W. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE NEAR 13N125W ON SAT NIGHT AND THIS IS DEPICTED IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AND GRAPHICS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N83W TO 09N87W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N105W...THEN TURNS WNW TO 10N120W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRSEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM OF OF CENTER WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER AREA FROM 11N TO 19N W OF 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 10 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED E AND S SWELL. OK>>>>>>>>>>>>..IBED NEAR THE TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA WITHIN 30 NM OF 08.5N83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N88W TO 05N100W TO 10N130W...AND ELSEWHERE N OF TD 10-E WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N120W TO 13N140W. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 15N100W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ONLY NORTHWESTERLY 15 KT FLOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7- 9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BRIEFLY BELOW 8 FT EARLY TONIGHT. SIMILAR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED TO MAX AT 20 KT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF SURGE OF N WINDS AT 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 8 FT. $$ NELSON