000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED AUG 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N126W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION  
INTERMITTENTLY FLARING. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 125W-129W. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL W-NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 9N ALONG 92W. NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7-17N ALONG 110W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W 
AT ABOUT 15 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 111W TO 120.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N78W TO 7N91W. ITCZ FROM 7N91W TO 8N112W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 10N132WTO 9N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-93W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 101W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N136W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE NE TO 32N117W. A 75-90 
KT JETSTREAM NE OF THE RIDGE IS FROM 28N140W TO 32N129W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE 
JET...OTHERWISE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 17N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N111W. DIFFLUENCE IS S OF 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N 
BETWEEN 111W-120W.
 
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 16N115W. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL 
SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 180 
NM OF BAJA THROUGH EARLY THU WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ELY WIND 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH 7-9 FT SEAS MIXING WITH THE 
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 
LESS THEN 20 KT BY THU EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A BRIEF SURGE OF N WINDS AT 20-25 KT IS 
EXPECTED...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE 
AGAIN WED MORNING...THEN DECREASE AGAIN WED EVENING. 

$$
DGS