000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041526
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS NEAR 12.5N122.5W WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
INTERMITTENTLY FLARING MAINLY OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE WHERE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OVER SW 
QUADRANT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM 
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES W-
NW. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N105W TO 08N106W MOVING W-SW 
20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N100W TO 
14N105W.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS AT THE COSTA RICA COAST NEAR 9N85W ALONG 
6N95W 7N109W TO 10N116W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
THROUGH THE 1006 MB LOW NEAR 12.5N122.5W ALONG 9N130W TO 5N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 106W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS  
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 106W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-
95W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 131W-136W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 
90W-105W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 17N138W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 24N125W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE 
CENTERED NEAR 15N107W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 
100W AND 115W. THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 6N78.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 45 NM S SEMICIRCLES.

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N136W TO 22N119W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 
27N WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM W OF BAJA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT.   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT  
20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 8 
TO 9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE 
SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. SIMILAR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS 
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WEAKER FLOW ON WED NIGHT.

$$
PAW