000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031449
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.               
   
...TROPICAL LOWS AND WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 99W/100W N OF 10N TO INLAND OVER 
MEXICO MOVING W-SW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 98W-
106W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE W 
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N118W AT 1007 
MB. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 
5N-16N BETWEEN 115W-126W. THE CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY BETTER 
ORGANIZED TODAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRACKS W-NW. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N91W ALONG 8N103W TO THE 1007 MB LOW NEAR 
11N118W THEN ALONG 8N128W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N E OF 86W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA... 
FROM ITCZ TO 11N BETWEEN 100W-107W...FROM ITCZ TO 14N BETWEEN 
107W-112W...AND FROM 4N-12N W OF 130W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE DRAINAGE FLOW IS SUBSIDED WITH WINDS 20 
KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT W THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUE. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT THEN AGAIN SHIFT W TUE. THIS EVENT WILL 
REPEAT AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.    

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N140W TO 23N118W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL 
SUPPORT NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA 
THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 8 FT.  
 
$$
PAW