000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020222
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 
                     
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
 
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY 
FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 180 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IN OUTER BANDS WAS NOTED FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 133W 
AND 137W. AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA LATER TONIGHT AND SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL 
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE GUILLERMO  PLEASE REFER TO MARINE 
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HFOTCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL IS OVER SOUTHERN COSTA 
RICA...AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND 
NICARAGUA...MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED 
IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 110W FROM 07N-16N 
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N TO 
11N. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER NICE DEFINED NE TO 
SE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 180NM-240 NM ACROSS THE 
AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG 
THE WAVE NEAR 10N DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... AND CONTINUE W 
WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N83W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 06N95W TO 09N110W TO 05N125W TO 07N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 129W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N128W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 18N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL 
ALLOW FOR NW 15-20 KT WINDS TO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. 
  
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 95W-120W 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MON. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THE GULF ARE 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON...THEN MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEGINNING 
OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AND TUE. INDUCED SEAS OF 7-8 FT FROM 
PREVIOUS 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE WSW AND MIX WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL 
SWELLS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT NLY 
DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT EARLY ON SUN. 

$$
COBB