000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270239 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 14N121W MOVING NW AT 14 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND SW QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 NM W QUADRANT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 15 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 99W FROM 08N-17N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-10N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 06N-16N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-12N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N125W TO 09N129W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 09N-14N W OF WAVE TO 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 05N89W TO 08N100W TO 06N111W TO LOW PRES 14N121W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S AND 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-134W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N155W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N127W TO 17N112W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W MOVING W AROUND 5 KT. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH 7-9 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL. AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE BUILT ACROSS NE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP- LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS LIE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND RETURN MON EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. $$ SCHAUER