000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262148 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED NEAR 12N119W MOVING NW AT 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1758 UTC SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW AROUND 10-15 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 98W FROM 08N TO 16N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 96W-101W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 108W FROM 07N-16N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 105W-114W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N125W TO 09N128W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 125W-130W AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 122W-128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W TO 05N88W TO 08N99W TO 06N110W TO 07N114W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES NEAR 12N119W TO 12N122W TO 08N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 89W...WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1033 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N157W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N123W TO 16N111W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N125W. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1754 UTC SHOWED WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL. AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENED...THE RIDGE WILL BUILT ACROSS NE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE MORNING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. $$ SCHAUER