000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 
                     
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS...WITH VERY WEAK SIGNATURE AT THE 
SURFACE... IS ANALYZED ALONG 96W FROM 08N-15N...MOVING W 10-15 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE WAVE AS 
DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
 
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 106W/107W FROM 08N-15N
...MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W-111W. LOW PRES 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THIS WAVE POSSIBLY JUST BEYOND 48 
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. 
 
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 125W FROM 08N-16N 
16N...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 
THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 12N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 08N-10N.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO 06N97W TO 
08N110W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 11N119W 1007 MB TO 
07N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE  
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-99W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
121W-128W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE CENTRAL PACIFIC  
NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N131W TO 
22N115W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA IS ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW 
SW OF THE RIDGE NEAR 25N124W. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION IS 
OBSERVED IN FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NE WINDS OF 20-25 
KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW 
SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ALSO 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW 
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 127W 
BY EARLY MON WITH WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL W 
OF THE TROUGH.

AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE 
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME 
TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A 
MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS 
INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH 
MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED  
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 30 NM OF 
27N111W.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOW PRES OF 
THE TROPICAL REGION AS INDUCED  MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO 
THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 11N THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF 
TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S...BUT EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE 
AND SW SWELL THERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE 
CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

A 1006 MB LOW WITH AN ELONGATED N TO S STRUCTURE IS ANALYZED 
NEAR 11N119W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO 
SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT 24-348 
HOURS WITH THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
TO THE N INCREASING. 20-25 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW ARE FORECAST 
TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT PRIMARILY IN THE NE QUADRANT DURING THIS 
PERIOD WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT MON.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N 
ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  
AS A RESULT...NE 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF AND TO 
THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 88W FROM 10N-12N WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT EARLY 
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY MON AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE 
WINDS WILL AGAIN PULSE TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE 
WITH SEAS 8-9 FT.

$$ 
AGUIRRE