000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260949 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ILL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 92W/93W N OF 06N... MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INVOF 06N102W TO 15N105W...MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. A COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE WAS BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. THIS WAVE IS BEST IDENTIFIED BY A DEVELOPING ELONGATED NE TO SW LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT... ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK TROUGHING IS NOTED ACROSS E AND W PORTIONS OF THE TROPICS. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 05.5N102W TO 12.5N116W...WHERE IT BECOMES ILL DEFINED. NO SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH RESIDES OVER THE NE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N131W TO 22N115W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24.5N124W. A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH STRATOFORM PRECIP CONTINUING TO OCCUR WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE NE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 125W LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL. AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WAS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 28N AND EXTENDED INLAND ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ELONGATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM 06N-12N W OF 116W HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 11N THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL THERE FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A COMPLEX LOW TO MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. AN NE TO SW ELONGATED CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 123W...MAINLY ACROSS E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS ELONGATED SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND A CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OFFSHORE NELY WINDS ARE BRIEFLY PULSING TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. WINDS THERE WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PULSING AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. $$ STRIPLING