000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260252 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W FROM 07N TO 15N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 99W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-11N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-15N...EXCEPT WITHIN 390 NM FROM 10N-13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N121W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 75 NM AND 300 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 131W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1035 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N160W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N110W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW OF THE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N123W. THE ASCAT PASS AT 1730 UTC SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS STILL LIE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP...BECOMING A TROUGH BY MON. WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MON NEAR THE SYSTEM UNDER PRIMARILY SW SWELL. AS THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE FORCING MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHRINK S BUT EXPAND E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A COMPLEX MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED FROM 16N120W TO 08N123W AND A NEWLY ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 113W FROM 09N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 09N-16N. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO MERGE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION ON MON. THE REMAINING TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N...WITH E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE WAVE MON AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT BY MON EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND PULSE AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SUN NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER