000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 88W N OF 07N TO INLAND EASTERN EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT REMAINS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 98W N OF 07N...MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE...EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE FROM 13N TO 15N. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING RATHER QUICKLY UNDER STRONG NE FLOW ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE AFFECTING A RATHER BROAD AREA IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THE TYPICAL NE TO SE SHIFT IN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION...SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN WITH ATLANTIC BASIN WAVES...HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N116W TO 10N119W. THE OBSERVED CONVECTION IS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE INTENSITY OCCURRING FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 115W-122W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT IT LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO WELL DEFINED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N100W TO 10N111W TO 08N123W TO 12N134W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-119W...ALSO BETWEEN 121W-125W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW FELICIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24N122W AS OF 15 UTC WITH PRES OF 1010 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. THE LOW HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A 300 DEG WIDE SWIRL OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. THE LOW WILL BE STEERED NW BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BY 42 HOURS. A STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY N OF 25N W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF FELICIA. FURTHER S...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM 12N-16N W OF ABOUT 127W.. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS THERE ARE TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL. A NEW PULSE OF SW SWELLS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES...AND AS THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN MIXED SW AND W SWELL N OF 28N AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST MON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY THIS EVENING ...THEN PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT MON AFTERNOON. $$ AGUIRRE