000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242131 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 118.8W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 24 MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SE QUADRANTS. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND CONTINUES TO INGEST STABLE AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS BY EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT FELICIA COULD DEGENERATE EVEN SOONER. FELICIA SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SW OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURN W AND DISSIPATE INTO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 83W N OF 07N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 93W N OF 06N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE OVER PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N AS WELL AS INLAND ALONG THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 113W FROM 09N TO 16N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E AND 60 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N103W TO 11N108W TO 07N123W TO 13N135W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-120W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF FELICIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL DOMINATE THIS AREA. NEW SW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN THE AREA DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGEST TRADES. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A SOUTHERLY DISPLACED RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT...AND AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER