000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231608 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E AT 23/0900 UTC...AND TO THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...NAMED FELICIA AT 23/1500 UTC. AT THIS TIME...THE CENTER OF FELICIA IS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.9W MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY THIS MORNING THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM WAS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE S OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 113W AND 118W. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGHT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FELICIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY FRI NIGHT AND LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W N OF 07N MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTION IS NOW ON THE INCREASE E OF THE AXIS OVER PARTS OF COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. A LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 07N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF LOW CENTER FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 07N TO 16N MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SOME LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V PATTERN IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N118W TO 11.5N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 123W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 12N TO 14N W OF 135W TONIGHT AND FRI...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT PRIMARILY IN NE AND SE SWELL. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SW SWELL ALSO AFFECTING THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF LOS CABOS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... INCLUDING ALSO THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SWELL COULD BRING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. SEAS OF 8-10 FT ARE AFFECTING THE S WATERS PRIMARILY S OF 05N W OF 90W. SEAS OF 6-8 FT HAVE REACHED THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DIP S ON THU AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. PULSING WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. $$ GR