000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230230
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU JUL 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0115 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N114W WAS MOVING NW AT 5 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 60 NM NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT WHILE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE 
AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT 1740Z 
SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE 
SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION...BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS 
ON FRI. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER THAT 
TIME. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE 
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS 
FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 81W N OF 06N MOVING W AROUND 
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N 
OF 06N E OF 86W INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA AND WESTERN COSTA 
RICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 102W N OF 08N. THE WAVE HAD NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT WAS MOVING W 
AROUND 20-25 KT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N82W TO 08N90W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 124W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N W OF 
120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS MAINLY FROM 11N TO 19N W OF 130W ON THU...WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE...SE AND SW SWELL BY LATE FRI.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 
18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE COAST S OF CABO CORRIENTES 
AND A SECOND SWELL TRAIN OF SIMILAR PERIOD HAS REACHED THE COAST 
FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS SWELL COULD 
BRING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE SWELL WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THU EVENING WHERE IT WILL MIX WITH 
15-17 SECOND W SWELL. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 TO 10 FT PRIMARILY 
ACROSS WATER S OF 06N W OF 80W. SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD NORTHWARD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS REACHING 08.5N BY  
THU EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS TO 8 FT THERE ON FRI.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DIP S ON THU AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE 
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT...WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY FRI 
EVENING.

$$ 
SCHAUER