000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222155 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED JUL 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16.5N113.5W MOVING NW AT 3 
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM NE 
QUADRANT...240 NM S QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. 
THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS AT 1740Z SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN 
150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND 
SHEAR CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM DEVELOPING BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS ON FRI. ANY FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS 
STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 
8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS.

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 80W N OF 04N MOVING W AROUND 
20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 100W N OF 09N. THE WAVE HAD NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IT IS MOVING W 
AROUND 20 KT. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 07N88W TO 
08N98W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N132W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 
03.5N BETWEEN 83.5W AND 95W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 18N W OF 
120W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS MAINLY FROM 11N TO 19N W OF 130W BY THU.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 
18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE COAST S OF CABO CORRIENTES 
AND A SECOND SWELL TRAIN OF SIMILAR PERIOD HAS REACHED THE COAST 
FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ONTO THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRI. THIS SWELL 
COULD BRING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. SEAS HAVE BUILT 
TO 9 FT ACROSS WASTER S OF 06N W OF 80W. SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD E OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS REACHING 
08N BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS TO 8 FT 
THERE LATE FRI.

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SW N ATLC AND GULF OF 
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO DIP S ON THU AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE S OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE 
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT...WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ 
SCHAUER