000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED JUL 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR 15N113W AND MOVING 
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 210 NM S QUADRANT AND 90 NM W QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUED TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM 
DEVELOPING TODAY BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THERE IS A HIGH 
PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO. CURRENTLY...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT 
WITH AN EARLIER CRYOSAT PASS SHOWING SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT IN 
MIXED SWELL. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH 
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AND PEAKING NEAR 
40 KT THU MORNING. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO THE 10-15 FT RANGE 
DURING THAT TIME. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP1 FOR ADDITIONAL 
DETAILS.

...LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES...

THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ENRIQUE WAS NEAR 
23N139W. IT WAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION WAS APPARENT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 
WINDS TO 20 KT AROUND THE LOW CENTER. CRYOSAT SHOWED SEAS TO 8 
FT NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 
THE WEST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WED...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 
8 FT.

A 1011 MB LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 08N93W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 90W-99W. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
INTENSITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 81W N OF 05N MOVING W AROUND 
20-25 KT. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY 
NEAR THE WAVE BUT SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE WAVE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 83W-89W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N123W TO 06N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-08N W OF 
122W TO MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS IN THE 
18-20 SECOND RANGE WILL REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST 
TO MAZATLAN BY EARLY THU MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL MEET 15-17 
SECOND PERIOD W-NW SWELL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA BY THU AFTERNOON. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL HAS 
BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 04N. 
THE SWELL IS PRIMARILY FROM THE S E OF 110W AND FROM THE SE W OF 
110W. THESE 7-9 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 
81W S OF A LINE FROM 09N83W TO 09N110W TO 00N140W THROUGH THU 
NIGHT.

$$ 
SCHAUER